If the oddsmakers are correct, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ reign of “terrible” in the AFC North is over.
The Steelers’ NFL odds have the team pegged to finish last in the division and the 2022 season win total of 7.5 is calling for Mike Tomlin’s first losing season during this 16-year tenure in Pittsburgh.
Pushing against that opinion is one of the best defensive units in the league and an offense working under someone other than Ben Roethlisberger for the first time since Usher and Lil Jon had us screaming “Yeah!” in the club. Yep, it’s been that long.
Here’s our Pittsburgh Steelers 2022 betting preview.
Pittsburgh Steelers futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +10,000 |
| To win conference | +5,000 |
| To win division | +1,200 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 7.5 (Over -110) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +330 / No -400 |
Best futures bet: Under 7.5 wins (-110)
The Steelers’ 9-7 record in 2021 was a sham. Outside of a Week 1 shocker over Buffalo, that slaughtered many a survivor pool, Pittsburgh’s next eight victories would come with caveats (plus a tie against the frickin’ Lions!).
It barely beat Denver after blowing a 17-6 lead, edged Seattle without Russell Wilson in OT (also blew a 14-0 lead), beat the Bears by two (blowing 14-0 lead), squeaked past a Titans team missing Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, and added a pair of divisional wins against the broken Browns and injury-ravaged Ravens (including one without Lamar Jackson). Oh, and six of those wins came at home.
All in all, the Steelers went a remarkable 8-2-1 SU (8-3 ATS) in one-score games (eight points or less), sat No. 5 on TeamRankings’ “Luck Ratings”, and was out-gained by 55.5 yards per contest and owned an average margin of -4.2 points. Yet, Tomlin avoided his first losing season in 15 years in the Steel City. WTF?
The 2022 win total says 7.5 victories. However, the lookahead lines have the Steelers as point spread favorites in only four games, with two games vs. Cleveland off the board. This year’s version of the Black and Yellow is not that different from last year’s offering but does face a tougher slate.
Pittsburgh sits tied for 12th in standard strength of schedule and seventh in my QB SOS and doesn’t get to ease its way into action. The Steelers started the last two years playing six of their first nine games at home. This season, Pittsburgh hits the bricks for five road games in the first eight weeks before a Week 9 bye. This team was 3-6 SU (4-5 ATS) as a visitor in 2021.
Pittsburgh Steelers betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
Even with a new defensive coordinator in Teryl Austin and assistant Brian Flores, the Steelers’ stop unit will continue to cause chaos. Pittsburgh once again topped the NFL in sacks and owned a pressure rate of 26.1% while only blitzing on 24.9% of opponents’ dropbacks.
T.J. Watt is a one-man wrecking crew that can flip a game on its ear and has good talent feeding off his energy, including new addition LB Myles Jack. In the eight games in which the Steelers covered the spread last season, the team allowed less than 20 points in seven of those contests.
What will lose bets: Offensive line
The team’s faith in new QB Mitchell Trubisky (or rookie Kenny Pickett) and RB Najee Harris will all be for not if this offensive line doesn’t improve. The Steelers boast a discount O-line, after some less-than-sexy free agent additions, and that protection is projected to rank among the worst units in the league.
Pittsburgh’s quick-hitting pass attack was a necessity for Roethlisberger to survive and that skewed the protection metrics for the Steelers’ blockers, but it’s evident something is up when you’re averaging less than nine yards per completion and 3.8 yards per carry.
Black and Yellow bettors are going to be pissed when Pittsburgh allows only 17 points, and they still lose their wagers.
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Pittsburgh Steelers game-by-game odds
The Steelers have a notable discrepancy when it comes to win total vs. lookahead lines. If we split the OTB meetings with Cleveland (pending Deshaun Watson’s suspension), Pittsburgh is a favorite in five games at best – a 2.5-win gap compared to a season win total of 7.5.
As mentioned, the schedule is front-loaded with five road trips to playoff contending teams in the first eight weeks, while the Steelers host two other quality clubs in the Patriots and Buccaneers (and also play the Jets) in that stretch.
Tomlin’s team has historically been a great play in the opening half of the season, owning a 31-19-1 ATS mark (32-18-1 SU) in the first eight weeks of the year since 2015. However, they went 3-4 ATS in that span last year and catch an average spread of +4.3 in their first eight games in 2022.
| 1 | @ Cinncinati | +6.5 | 44.5 |
| 2 | vs. New England | +2 | 42.5 |
| 3 | @ Cleveland | OTB | |
| 4 | vs. N.Y. Jets | -3.5 | 45 |
| 5 | @ Buffalo | +9.5 | 46.5 |
| 6 | vs. Tampa Bay | +6 | 47.5 |
| 7 | @ Miami | +5.5 | 45 |
| 8 | @ Philadelphia | +4 | 43.5 |
| 9 | BYE | ||
| 10 | vs. New Orleans | -1 | 41.5 |
| 11 | vs. Cincinnati | +3 | 43.5 |
| 12 | @ Indianapolis | +6.5 | 44 |
| 13 | @ Atlanta | -2.5 | 44.5 |
| 14 | vs. Baltimore | +3 | 42.5 |
| 15 | @ Carolina | -1 | 42 |
| 16 | vs. Las Vegas | +1 | 43.5 |
| 17 | @ Baltimore | +7 | 43 |
| 18 | vs. Cleveland | OTB |
Pittsburgh Steelers pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
The Steelers are a roster I’d like to fade, but Mike Tomlin always keeps this team competitive. I’d expect them to finish around .500, with lots of high variance one-score games.
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